Prediction Markets: Distilling Collective Wisdom
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This case study was compiled from published sources, and is intended to be used as a basis for class discussion. It is not intended to illustrate either effective or ineffective handling of a management situation. Nor is it a primary information source.
Despite their growing acceptance, some analysts remained skeptical of prediction markets and their ability to predict future events. They believed that surveys were just as effective as, or even better than, prediction markets.
Many analysts believed that prediction markets had the potential to be the "next big thing" in forecasting and that they would be used in a wide array of situations. Robin Hanson, a noted economist, went as far as to suggest the creation of a futarchy -a form of government that would use prediction markets to decide which policies would have the desired effects.
Exhibit I: Using Prediction Markets in Corporate Settings: Some Dos and Don'ts
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