Economics-For Managers


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Economics For Managers, Management Textbook, Workbook



Microeconomics : Forecasting And Decision-Making : Chapter 10

Forecasting plays a major role in decision making because forecasts are useful in improving the efficiency of the decision-making process. Businessmen use various qualitative and quantitative demand forecasting techniques to predict future demand for products and accordingly take business decisions. Qualitative techniques include expert opinion, survey and market experiments, whereas quantitative techniques include time series analysis and barometric method.

Businessmen can understand the changes taking place in the economy in a better fashion by undertaking economic forecasting. Risk and uncertainty are the two major components of the business decision-making process.

Risk is a condition where the businessman can measure the possible outcomes and losses arising from a certain decision. However, uncertainty arises when the risk involved in decision-making cannot be calculated by businessmen.

Nevertheless, businessmen attempt to reduce the risk involved in such conditions (uncertain conditions) by using certain quantitative methods such as maximax criterion, maximin criterion, minimax criterion, Laplace criterion, etc.

Since huge investment decisions have to be made by businessmen, decision making should be done with utmost care because such decisions are irreversible. Companies therefore use capital budgeting as a tool to effectively plan and control such huge investment decisions.

Chapter 10 : Overview


Economic Forecasting
Demand Forecasting
Expert Opinion
Survey
Market Experiment
Time Series Analysis
Barometric Analysis

Risk And Decision-Making
Risk and Uncertainty
Risk and Decision-making
Uncertainty and Decision-making

Capital Budgeting
Capital Budgeting Process
Evaluation of Projects