Prediction Markets: Distilling Collective Wisdom
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This case study was compiled from published sources, and is intended to be used as a basis for class discussion. It is not intended to illustrate either effective or ineffective handling of a management situation. Nor is it a primary information source.
Over the years, several other prediction markets have come into existence. The corporate world came to recognize the potential of prediction markets and large companies such as HP, Yahoo, Google, and Microsoft also set up prediction markets.
What is a Prediction Market?
A prediction market may be defined as a speculative market created for the specific purpose of making predictions. Prediction markets operate on the premise that if it is possible to gather a sufficiently large number of people who think and act independently and possess private information, then the group's predictive judgments and analyses, on the whole, will be more accurate than those of individuals, however intelligent these individuals may be.
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