Prediction Markets: Distilling Collective Wisdom

            
 
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Case Details:

Case Code : BSTR268
Case Length : 14 Pages
Period : 1988-2007
Pub Date : 2007
Teaching Note :Not Available
Organization : --
Industry : Miscellaneous
Countries : Worldwide

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This case study was compiled from published sources, and is intended to be used as a basis for class discussion. It is not intended to illustrate either effective or ineffective handling of a management situation. Nor is it a primary information source.



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Excerpts

A Brief History of Prediction Markets

While the idea of prediction markets and the ability of groups to predict the future more accurately than individual experts is widely accepted today, this was not always the case. For example, in the eighteenth century, people had little confidence in the judgment of crowds...

Some Examples of Prediction Markets

Iowa Electronic Markets

Prediction markets, as we know them, came into being in 1988, when the Tippie College of Business at the University of Iowa started the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM)...

Hollywood Stock Exchange

The HSE, set up in 1996, has changed formats several times over the years; however the basic design remained the same...

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SimExchange

The SimExchange was a kind of stock market, where members traded on the future sales of hardware such as the Microsoft Xbox or the Nintendo Wii and games such as Need for Speed or Super Paper Mario...

Do Prediction Markets work?

Prediction markets were considered by some economists to be just as effective as stock markets in aggregating the information available with individuals. "The idea here is that prices aggregate information, the oldest idea in economics. What we're seeing now is excitement about moving this beyond the standard financial sector," said Justin Wolfers, professor, Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. Analysts felt that prediction markets, especially in corporate settings, brought out hidden information, which otherwise would have simply been ignored...

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