China's Abolition of One Child Policy: Will it Correct the Demographic Imbalance?
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Case Code: ECON049 Case Length: 10 Pages Period: 1960-2015 Pub Date: 2016 Teaching Note: Not Available |
Price: Rs.400 Organization : - Industry : Chinese Economy Countries : China Themes: Economics |
Abstract Case Intro 1 Excerpts
Excerpts
One Child Policy
Until the 1960s, the Chinese Government under Mao’s leadership encouraged families to have more children as it was believed that population growth could empower the country. This resulted in overpopulation (Population increased from 540 million in 1940 to 940 million in 1976) and increased pressure on consumption and natural resources. During the 1970s, China was confronted by economic problems such as a high rate of inflation and lower per capita income, which limited improvements in the standard of living. Other problems such as reduced capital accumulation and investment, technological backwardness, outdated agricultural methods, and social and environmental concerns were prominent and affected the living conditions of the population...
Impact of One Child Policy
The One Child Policy was officially in place from the year 1978 till 2015. Some researchers pointed out that the policy had really helped in controlling the population and in maintaining the growth rates fairly well. According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, 400 million births were prevented when the policy was in force. According to the census of 2010, the average annual growth rate of population was 0.57 percent, which was lower than the 1.48 percent average growth rate in 1982-1990. In order to control the population growth rate, the government had invested around $696 million each year in birth control schemes. According to the Chinese Ministry of Health, "There were over 350 million abortions and 196 million sterilizations since 1979"...
The Next Move: Relaxation Policy
In 2013, China's fertility rate of 1.6 was still below the replacement rate. The ratio of taxpayers to pensioners was expected to drop from almost 5:1 to 2:1 by 2030. The UN figures also estimated that China’s population aged 65 and above would almost triple from 9% in 2010 (or 114 million) to 24% (331 million) by 2050 (Refer to Exhibit 4). The working population aged 20-34 was projected to fall from 25% (333 million) of the population in 2010 to 16% (228 million) by 2050...
Abolition of One Child Policy
The relaxation policy of 2013 was limited in its nature and produced disappointing results. The problems of an unbalanced population (i.e. male-female ratio), increased old age dependency ratio, and labor shortage remained prominent...
Exhibits
Exhibit 1: Fertility Rate
Exhibit 2: Sex Ratio
Exhibit 3: Elderly Population
Exhibit 4: Projected Old Age Population by 2050
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