A Note On Currency And Index Futures
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TYPES OF FUTURESOn the basis of the underlying
asset, the different types of futures contracts traded can be grouped into
the following four categories:
• Currency Futures (where the underlying asset is a currency such as euro,
yen, dollar, etc.).
• Index Futures (where the underlying asset is a stock index).
• Commodity futures (wheat, corn and so on).
• Interest rate futures (underlying asset is an interest earning asset like
a debenture or bond).
TRADING USING CURRENCY FUTURES
An investor can limit his/her incoming and outgoing
cash flows in one currency with respect to another currency by
purchasing (long hedge) or selling (short hedge) foreign exchange
futures. A person dealing in foreign exchange is exposed to exchange
risk, since the cash flow in terms of domestic currency will be known
only at the time of conversion. To hedge, a person who has taken a long
position or is expected to do so in a foreign currency, should sell
futures in the foreign currency against the domestic currency.
Similarly, a person who has taken a short position or is expected to do
so in a foreign currency, can create a hedge by buying futures in the
foreign currency against the domestic currency instead of buying the
currency later in the spot market.
Example:
A US exporter is exporting goods to his German client. On January 27,
2003, the exporter got the confirmation from the German importer that
the payment of Euro 800,000 will be made on March 1, 2003.
In this case, the US exporter is exposed to currency fluctuations. If
the Euro depreciates there will be loss on his dollar receivables[7] . To
cover this risk the exporter can sell a Euro futures contract. |
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On January 27, 2003
Spot Market
Importer notifies the exporter that receivables equal to Euro 800,000 will
be delivered on March 1, 2003. Spot rate on January 27, 2003 is $/Euro
0.8208; Expected cash inflows are $656,640 (Euro 800,000 X 0.8208) if
converted. But the conversion is not possible since the exporter will be
receiving the Euros, only on March 01. However, he can sell the futures
contract in Euros.
Futures Market
The March futures rate is $/Euro 0.8243. The exporter sells four March Euro
futures contracts (the size of each contract is Euro 200,000). The
equivalent notional amount in US dollars will be $659,440 (0.8243 X Euro
800,000)
On March 1, 2003
Spot Market
The dollar has appreciated and the spot exchange rate is 0.81919. Therefore,
the dollar value of Euro 800,000 is $655,352. Hence, the loss to the
exporter compared to the spot market position is
= $656,640 – $655,352 = $1288
TRADING USING INDEX FUTURES
CONCLUSION
EXHIBIT I DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FUTURES AND FORWARDS CONTRACTS
EXHIBIT II A NOTE ON ANALYZING FUTURES PRICES
ADDITIONAL READINGS AND REFERENCES
[7] Euro depreciates against dollar
means, for the same amount of Euro less dollars will be available.
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