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A Note On Currency And Index Futures

            

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TYPES OF FUTURES

On the basis of the underlying asset, the different types of futures contracts traded can be grouped into the following four categories:

• Currency Futures (where the underlying asset is a currency such as euro, yen, dollar, etc.).
• Index Futures (where the underlying asset is a stock index).
• Commodity futures (wheat, corn and so on).
• Interest rate futures (underlying asset is an interest earning asset like a debenture or bond).

TRADING USING CURRENCY FUTURES

An investor can limit his/her incoming and outgoing cash flows in one currency with respect to another currency by purchasing (long hedge) or selling (short hedge) foreign exchange futures. A person dealing in foreign exchange is exposed to exchange risk, since the cash flow in terms of domestic currency will be known only at the time of conversion. To hedge, a person who has taken a long position or is expected to do so in a foreign currency, should sell futures in the foreign currency against the domestic currency. Similarly, a person who has taken a short position or is expected to do so in a foreign currency, can create a hedge by buying futures in the foreign currency against the domestic currency instead of buying the currency later in the spot market.

Example:

A US exporter is exporting goods to his German client. On January 27, 2003, the exporter got the confirmation from the German importer that the payment of Euro 800,000 will be made on March 1, 2003.
In this case, the US exporter is exposed to currency fluctuations. If the Euro depreciates there will be loss on his dollar receivables[7] . To cover this risk the exporter can sell a Euro futures contract.

On January 27, 2003

Spot Market

Importer notifies the exporter that receivables equal to Euro 800,000 will be delivered on March 1, 2003. Spot rate on January 27, 2003 is $/Euro 0.8208; Expected cash inflows are $656,640 (Euro 800,000 X 0.8208) if converted. But the conversion is not possible since the exporter will be receiving the Euros, only on March 01. However, he can sell the futures contract in Euros.


Futures Market


The March futures rate is $/Euro 0.8243. The exporter sells four March Euro futures contracts (the size of each contract is Euro 200,000). The equivalent notional amount in US dollars will be $659,440 (0.8243 X Euro 800,000)

On March 1, 2003

Spot Market

The dollar has appreciated and the spot exchange rate is 0.81919. Therefore, the dollar value of Euro 800,000 is $655,352. Hence, the loss to the exporter compared to the spot market position is

= $656,640 – $655,352 = $1288


TRADING USING INDEX FUTURES

CONCLUSION

EXHIBIT I DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FUTURES AND FORWARDS CONTRACTS

EXHIBIT II A NOTE ON ANALYZING FUTURES PRICES


ADDITIONAL READINGS AND REFERENCES

[7] Euro depreciates against dollar means, for the same amount of Euro less dollars will be available.


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